Study of the impact of the war on Ukraine's agricultural markets using the EMSMA methodology. Q2 2025
| Date of Preparation: | June 2025 year |
| Number of pages: | 86, Arial, 1 interval, 10 skittles |
| Graphs and charts: | 37 |
| Tables: | 26 |
| Payment method: | prepayment |
| Production method: | e-mail or courier electronically or in printed form |
| Report language: | Ukrainian, Russian, English |
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Detailed contents:
1. Brief description of market research methodology
2. General factors influencing the agricultural market and the state of agricultural areas
3. Markets for goods and services for agricultural MSMEs: agricultural machinery, splicing systems, precision farming systems, fertilizers and plant protection products, veterinary services and laboratory tests, etc.
4. Behavioral changes in the market of elevators and elevator equipment: storage dynamics at different capacities, adaptation over the last 3-5 seasons, relations with suppliers, ideas for strengthening the market and increasing the efficiency of interaction between farmers and elevators (desk research and survey results)
5. Behavioral changes in the potato market: adaptations over the last 3-5 seasons, relationships with suppliers, ideas for strengthening the market and increasing the efficiency of interaction between farmers and hubs/processors (desk research and survey results)
6. China's role in Ukrainian agricultural markets (desk research and survey results)
7. Analysis of the impact of certain factors and market systems on individual branches of the agricultural sector during martial law in the country using the EMSMA methodology
7.1. Crop production
7.1.1. General situation as of June 2025: cereals and oilseeds, potatoes, vegetables, fruits and berries
7.1.2. Changes that occurred during 2022-2024 in production, processing, exports and domestic consumption - in general by cultivation products and separately by each type of product, if relevant information is available
7.1.3. Conclusions and recommendations for engaging the USAID AGRO Program by sector
7. 2. Animal husbandry
7.2.1. General situation as of June 2025: meat and dairy products, poultry
7.2.2. Changes that occurred during 2022-2024 in production, processing, exports and domestic consumption - in general by industry and separately for each type of product, if relevant information is available (desk research)
8. General conclusions and recommendations
8.1. Conclusions and predictions of key factors that will require the most attention during 2025.
Appendix A. Survey questionnaire for crop production and processing representatives
Appendix B. Survey questionnaire for representatives of grain elevator companies
Appendix C. Potato Producers Survey Questionnaire
List of Tables:
1. Rating of changes in the availability of factors important for agricultural production in Ukraine in April–June 2025 (1 – significantly worsened, 5 – significantly improved), points
2. Brief description, difficulties and shortcomings of some grant programs for the agricultural sector in Ukraine (excluding USAID)
3. Regional distribution and ratio of sown areas and elevator capacities in Ukraine as of 2024, thousand hectares, million tons, thousand hectares/elevator
4. Distribution and ratio of sown areas and elevators in Ukraine by sectors for 2024, thousand hectares, units, thousand hectares/elevator
5. Dynamics of foreign economic activity of potatoes in Ukraine in 2021-2024, thousand tons
6. Dynamics of changes in the volume of imports and share in world imports of grain silos from China, the USA and the world to Ukraine for the period 2022 - 10 months of 2023, thousand dollars, %
7. Structure of respondents' use of goods and services by country of origin (focus on China and the United States), %
8. Sowed areas of the main grain, leguminous and oilseed crops in Ukraine as of June 13, 2025 compared to 2024 and the forecast, thousand hectares, %
9. Change in prices for grain crops in Ukraine as of 06/30/2025 compared to 07/01/2024, EXW, UAH per ton, USD per ton, %
10. Dynamics of exports from Ukraine of grains, legumes (with products of their processing) and flour in 2024/2025 MY and 2024/2025 MY, thousand tons
11. Dynamics of exports of oilseed agricultural products from Ukraine for the 2023/2024 MY and 2024/2025 MY, million tons, million USD %
12. Changes in grain sales channels by survey respondents during January-June 2025, %
13. Rating of changes in the availability of factors important for grain production in April–June 2024 and 2025 (1 – significantly worsened, 5 – significantly improved), points
14. Changes in oilseed sales channels by survey respondents during January-June 2025, %
15. Rating of changes in the availability of factors important for oilseed production in April–June 2024 and 2025 (1 – significantly worsened, 5 – significantly improved), points
16. Changes in sales channels for fruit and vegetable products by survey respondents during January-June 2025, %
17. Rating of changes in the availability of factors important for the production of fruit and vegetable products in April–June 2024 and 2025 (1 – significantly worsened, 5 – significantly improved), points
18. Changes in sales channels for processed agricultural products by survey respondents during January-June 2025, %
19. Rating of changes in the availability of factors important for the production of agricultural processing products in April–June 2024 and 2025 (1 – significantly worsened, 5 – significantly improved), points
20. List and structuring of changes in the crop production industry during the first half of 2025
21. Dynamics of exports of live cattle, chilled and frozen beef from Ukraine for January-May 2024 and 2025 in natural and monetary terms, thousand tons, million dollars.
22. Dynamics of imports of live cattle, chilled and frozen beef to Ukraine for January-May 2024 and 2025 in physical terms, tons
23. Dynamics of exports of Ukrainian dairy products from Ukraine for January-May 2024 and 2025, thousand tons, million dollars, %
24. Dynamics of poultry meat exports from Ukraine for January-May 2024 and 2025, thousand tons, million dollars, %
25. Dynamics of egg exports from Ukraine for January-May 2024 and 2025, thousand tons, million dollars, %
26. List and structuring of changes in the livestock industry during the first half of 2025.
List of graphs and charts:
1. Structure of direct losses of the agricultural sector of Ukraine as of the beginning of 2025, billion USD, %
2. Types of assistance received by agricultural enterprises-respondents of the survey, during the 1st half of 2025, %
3. Regional distribution of grain elevator companies – survey respondents in July 2025, number of respondents
4. Structure of the supply of agricultural storage systems by type (according to the survey results), %
5. Main criteria for choosing grain elevator services by farmers (based on the results of a survey of grain elevator companies), %
6. Regional distribution of respondents, persons
7. Key factors that currently hinder or complicate the use of elevator services in respondents' activities, number of responses, %
8. Dynamics of potato production in Ukraine in 2021-2024, million tons, %
9. Dynamics of average monthly prices for potatoes for the period 2023-5 months of 2025, UAH/kg
10. Structure of potato sales (according to the results of a survey of producers), %
11. Main difficulties in selling potatoes, number of responses
12. Average resource availability in the current season of respondents on a scale from 1 to 5, points
13. Key gaps in the provision of activities (as assessed by respondents), number of responses
14. The most effective types of support in the next season, number of responses
15. Respondents' first priority actions in case of receiving a resource (financing, knowledge, etc.), %
16. Reasons for restraining the development of potato producers in Ukraine (excluding martial law), %
17. Incentives for increasing potato production for processing (according to respondents), %
18. Dynamics of changes in the volume of imports of irrigation equipment for agricultural use from China, the USA and the world to Ukraine for the period 2021 - 1st quarter of 2025, million USD, %
19. Dynamics of changes in the volume of imports of all irrigation equipment for agricultural use from China, the USA and the world to Ukraine for the period 2021 - 1st quarter of 2025, million USD, %
20. Dynamics of changes in the volume of imports of equipment for use in crop production from China, the USA and the world to Ukraine for the period 2021 - 1st quarter of 2025, million USD, %
21. Dynamics of changes in the volume of imports of equipment for use in crop production from China, the USA and the world to Ukraine for the period 2021 - 1st quarter of 2025, total, million USD
22. Dynamics of changes in the volume of imports of machinery for use in the processing of agricultural products and livestock from China, the USA and the world to Ukraine for the period 2021 - 1st quarter of 2025, million USD
23. Dynamics of changes in the volume of imports and share in global imports of equipment for use in livestock breeding and processing of agricultural products from China, the USA and the world to Ukraine for the period 2021 - 1st quarter of 2025 in total, million USD
24. Dynamics of changes in the volume of fertilizer imports from China, the USA and the world to Ukraine for the period 2021 - 1st quarter of 2025, million USD.
25. Dynamics of changes in the volume of imports of plant protection products from China, the USA and the world to Ukraine for the period 2021 - 1st quarter of 2025, million USD.
26. Structure of imports of agricultural auxiliary products from China in 2024 in monetary terms (by studied commodity items), %
27. Dynamics of prices for grain crops in Ukraine for the period 12.05.2025-30.06.2025, EXW, UAH/ton
28. Area sown with grain and leguminous crops by region as of June 12, 2025, thousands of hectares
29. Change in the area of grain and legume crops by region as of June 12, 2025, % compared to the same period of the previous year
30. Area of oilseed crops by region as of June 12, 2025, thousand hectares
31. Change in the area of oilseed crops by region as of June 12, 2025, % compared to the same period of the previous year
32. Comparative dynamics of the Borsch Set Cost Index in the II quarter of 2023, 2024, 2025, UAH
33. Dynamics of pig population in 2023-2025, million heads, %
34. Dynamics of foreign trade in pork (fresh, chilled or frozen) for the periods of the 1st quarter of 2024 and 2025, tons
35. Dynamics of exports of live cattle and frozen beef from Ukraine for 2021 - January-May 2025 in physical terms, thousand tons
36. Dynamics of exports of live fresh or beef from Ukraine for 2021 - January-May 2025 in physical terms, thousand tons
37. Consumer price index for chicken eggs for the period 01.01.2025-01.07.2025, %
